Late predictions for 2022: Facebook metaverse flops; Roku buys Vizio; CBS Evening News canceled

Some prognosticators wait until the new year has already begun before releasing their predictions for the year ahead.
What follows are some predictions in the media and technology arenas that came out after I wrote my last roundup of 2022 predictions in December.

Facebook’s metaverse will be the biggest tech fail of 2022

Scott Galloway, professor of marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, predicted that Facebook’s push into the metaverse will be a colossal failure.
First, few people want to strap on a headset to hang out in a virtual world, he said. And second, Mark Zuckerberg, chief executive of Facebook parent company Meta Platforms, has shown that he can’t be trusted with people’s personal data.

Metaverse mania will wane in 2022

Research firm ARtillery Intelligence predicted that exuberance and investment around the metaverse will recede in 2022.
“Though the metaverse is a legitimate principle with ample promise, its fully actualized arrival is years or even decades away,” the firm said. “Any metaverse outcomes in the next year can’t possibly live up to the hype.”

Bumpy year ahead for streaming services in U.S.

Bloomberg writer Lucas Shaw predicted slower growth and higher churn for subscription video-on-demand services like Netflix in the U.S. in 2022. He also said Roku will have to decide soon whether to become or buy a media company.

Roku will buy Vizio instead of a studio

LightShed Partners believes Roku will buy smart TV maker Vizio to expand its hardware offerings and user base in streaming video. Roku is looking for a bigger footprint of users for its advertising service. It is less likely that Roku will buy a content studio, LightShed said.

Europe cements its position as world’s most important tech regulator

Casey Newton, editor of Platformer, doesn’t see much significant U.S. regulatory action to rein in Big Tech in 2022. Instead, Europe and the U.K. will take the lead in antitrust action against tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Meta and others, he said.

ViacomCBS will cancel its CBS Evening News

TDG analyst Rob Silvershein said ViacomCBS will cancel its CBS Evening News in 2022. The company might announce a more aggressive streaming news initiative, he said. “If it does, however, it will be too little too late,” Silvershein said.

Peloton merges with Garmin

The Motley Fool made several predictions about mergers and acquisitions in 2022. One writer predicted Peloton will merge with Garmin. Another predicted Etsy and Pinterest will merge.

Photo: Mark Zuckerberg discusses his vision of the metaverse. (Meta)

2020 predictions for media and tech company mergers & acquisitions

Ahead of the new year, analysts and pundits made 2020 predictions for mergers and acquisitions in the media and technology industries. Some are far-fetched “black swans” while others are more rooted in reality.
What follows are a few interesting ones.

MGM hangs ‘for sale’ sign

Staff writers at Variety predicted that movie studio MGM will put itself up for sale in the new year.
“MGM will be on the block as speculation about Apple and Amazon kicking tires on IP assets reaches fever pitch,” Variety said in a Dec. 17 article. “It’s a seller’s market for companies with proven franchises, and MGM controls the rights to no less than James Bond.”

Sony, Lionsgate studios in play

Research firm Strategy Analytics believes Sony Pictures and Lionsgate are likely acquisition targets because they are “now midsized studios in a land of behemoths.”
“Both traditional media companies and undercapitalized and underperforming privately held digital pure plays become logical M&A candidates,” the firm said in its “Media & Entertainment Predictions for 2020.”
The media and entertainment industry has been rocked by major deals in recent years. They include AT&T acquiring Time Warner ($85 billion), Disney acquiring 21st Century Fox ($71.3 billion), Comcast acquiring Sky ($39 billion), CBS re-acquiring Viacom (they split in 2005) ($12 billion), and SiriusXM acquiring the remaining 81% of Pandora it didn’t already own ($3.5 billion).

Smaller streaming video services targeted

Strategy Analytics also believes that many smaller online video services that rely primarily on ad dollars are strong acquisition candidates. They include Tubi, Xumo and Popcornflix. Some of them could be sold at fire sale prices.

Apple seen buying Disney

Year after year, analysts who don’t understand Apple predict that the iPhone maker will announce some huge transformative acquisition. And year after year, they are wrong, because Apple prefers to do smaller tuck-in acquisitions of technology and engineering talent.
What gets their minds racing is the fact that Apple has a huge war chest – $206 billion in cash and securities as of Sept. 28.
Bilal Hafeez, chief executive officer and head of research at Micro Hive, thinks Apple will buy media conglomerate Walt Disney Co. to supercharge its services aspirations.
“While Apple has famously been reluctant to make large acquisitions, perhaps 2020 could see them lose patience and take that path instead,” Hafeez said in Dec. 23 article. “And what better target than Disney? The financials could work. Apple’s market cap of $1.2 trillion dwarves that of Disney ($265 billion). In fact, Apple has over $200 billion in cash on its balance sheet, which alone could almost fund the purchase. The acquisition would give a large library of high-quality content including the Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar properties. It would also give Apple another entry point into the Chinese consumer market.”

Arlo, GoPro get snapped up

Fortune magazine staff writers predict that more small consumer electronics companies will be acquired in the new year, following Google’s planned purchase of struggling fitness device maker Fitbit.
“Action-camera maker GoPro and security-cam maker Arlo Technologies both trade 80% below their IPO prices, with the market valuing each at less than a single year’s sales. Expect both to be snapped up in 2020,” Fortune said in a Dec. 2 article.

Related article:

Year-ahead predictions in technology IPOs and robotics (Dec. 28, 2019)

Photo: Movie poster for upcoming James Bond action movie “No Time to Die.” (MGM)