2021 tech industry predictions: Pent-up horniness boosts dating apps, big M&A deals forecast

Tech pundits had many of their predictions for 2020 thrown out the window because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The health crisis was a black swan event that made their forecasts mostly irrelevant.
Now that vaccines are reaching the market, governments might finally get the Covid-19 pandemic under control in the new year.
So, what are prognosticators seeing for 2021?
What follows is a sampling of predictions that will be proven right or wrong in the year ahead.

Dating apps have big moment post-pandemic

Readers of the Verge offered their predictions for the consumer internet and social networks in 2020.
Some people forecast a surge in usage of dating apps as the world opens following Covid-19 vaccinations.
“Many of you predict that when the Covid-19 vaccines have been widely distributed, the Earth will experience a period of prolonged horniness unlike anything that has been seen in generations,” Casey Newton wrote. “Tinder, Grindr, and all the rest are poised to thrive as a result.”

2021 IPOs: WordPress, TikTok, ‘Pokemon Go’ parents

2020 was a big year for initial public offerings. IPOs this year included Airbnb, DoorDash, Palantir Technologies, Snowflake, Unity Software and Warner Music Group.
Potential IPO candidates for 2021 include Didi, the “Uber of China”; ByteDance, owner of social media network TikTok; and Chinese drone maker DJI Innovations, MKM Partners said in a report. Others include Automattic, WordPress operator, website developer and e-commerce enabler; Niantic, the mobile video game developer known for “Pokemon Go”; and Roblox, online game platform and game creation system, MKM said.
Kiplinger included Roblox on its “13 Hot Upcoming IPOs to Watch For in 2021.” The list also features female-focused online dating service Bumble, pet supplies retailer Petco, game developers platform AppLovin, and stock-trading service Robinhood.

Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle make big acquisitions

The Information predicted several major tech acquisitions in 2021.
Writers Nick Wingfield and Kevin McLaughlin predicted that Microsoft will buy MongoDB. They said the acquisition would give Microsoft a way to beef up its online database offerings to better compete with Amazon Web Services.
They predicted Cisco will buy Smartsheet to make a move into the collaboration software category.
They also think Oracle will make a bid for Dropbox or Box, both file-sharing services, in the year ahead.
Elsewhere, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said he thinks Microsoft will “make a major software acquisition” to expand its product footprint in the cloud computing war against Amazon.com.

U.S. tech firm buys Nokia

Research firm CCS Insight made several interesting predictions for the year ahead.
For one, it expects the Covid-19 pandemic to quicken the adoption of robots and automation beyond manufacturing and logistics.
CCS Insight also predicted that “a major U.S. tech company buys Nokia in 2021.” It said Microsoft is one potential suitor, according to Nokiamob.net.

Apple acquires a movie studio

Wedbush’s Ives predicts that Apple will buy a movie studio to bulk up the content on its Apple TV+ video streaming service. He included the 2021 prediction as part of his “Christmas wish list” for Apple. News reports say Apple recently passed on a deal to buy MGM.
“Apple finally rips the Band-Aid off and makes a major studio acquisition to change the course of its content efforts around Apple TV+ and its aggressive streaming ambitions,” Ives said. “We believe Sony Pictures, Lionsgate, and A24 remain the top candidates if (Apple CEO Tim) Cook & Co. go down that path.”

Evolutionary year ahead for augmented reality

ABI Research predicts that 2021 will be a “boon year” for the augmented reality market.
The enterprise market will continue to drive the AR market with remote expertise and remote training applications, ABI said.
The consumer AR market will grow thanks to smartphone and tablet software applications. But the predicted AR smart glasses market is still just getting started.
“2021 will be an important one for AR consumer hardware,” said Eric Abbruzzese, AR/VR research director at ABI Research. “nReal will ship its first headsets to consumers, while Mad Gaze will also look to expand. Also, Facebook is expected to roll out its AR smart glasses out of its Reality Labs initiative; Google may join as well after the acquisition of North, and with pressure from Facebook and others. Although expectations for a dedicated AR product launch are targeting 2022 for the company, Apple is a wild card.”
Mike Boland, an analyst with ARtillery Intelligence, says spatial computing has “transitioned to an adolescent period of its lifecycle.”
Consumer AR glasses will make progress in 2021, but they will be evolutionary, not revolutionary, developments, he said. The focus of AR glasses remains on the enterprise market, which doesn’t mind pricey, bulky hardware as long as it improves productivity and efficiency.
Boland expects Apple to announce its rumored smart glasses in 2022.

Photo: Dating apps illustration by Norma Dorothy via Creative Commons.

Rough year ahead for Microsoft and other 2013 tech predictions

Analysts predict tough going for Microsoft, Nokia, Hewlett-Packard and Research In Motion in the year ahead.

2013 tech industry predictions, part five: 

1. Bill Gates returns as Microsoft CEO after Steve Ballmer is ousted. 

CNBC predicts that Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates will return to lead the company after Steve Ballmer is shown the door.
“With Windows 8 a disaster, and the Surface tablet not close to meeting original internal projections, Steve Ballmer’s days at Microsoft in 2013 are ... over. The bigger surprise: Chairman Bill Gates returns as interim CEO in a last-ditch effort to do the impossible: re-engineer Microsoft to its former glory. Perhaps the only bright side: To keep investors engaged, Microsoft more than doubles its regular dividend.”

2. Windows 8 gets a quick overhaul. 

Veteran technology reporter and analyst Steve Wildstrom says Windows 8 will get an overhaul soon in response to consumer complaints about its new user interface.
“I expect that, at a minimum, Windows 8.1 (whatever it is really called) will give users of conventional PCs the ability to boot directly into Desktop mode, less need to ever use the Metro interface, and the return of some version of the Start button.”

3. Microsoft will make Office software for every platform. 

“2013 is going to be ugly” for Microsoft as it shifts to Windows 8, Forrester predicts. When PCs, tablets and smartphones are combined in a category called personal devices, Microsoft’s share of all operating systems has fallen from 95% in 2008 to 30% in 2012. And because Microsoft has little chance of gaining a large share of the smartphone and tablet markets, it will need make its Office productivity software for all the major platforms, Forrester says.
“Microsoft has to bite the bullet and rake in revenue from Office on every platform, not just Windows, and to a minor extent, (Mac) OS X,” Forrester says. “To remain relevant in a world where mobile devices outnumber PCs at least 2 to 1, the Office team will have to figure out ways to make Office equally accessible on Mac, iOS, Android devices, proprietary Android tablets, and the Web.”

4. Hewlett-Packard spins off its PC and printer business.

Before the end of 2013, HP will spin off its PC and printer business as it “makes a last-ditch effort to be like IBM,” CNBC says.
Silicon Valley entrepreneur Mark Rogowsky says calls to break up HP will grow louder in 2013, but HP CEO Meg Whitman will take other actions during the year.
HP will cut things like its Snapfish division, trim the number of PC models it makes by half and take another accounting charge, he says.

5. Nokia will split up and the parts will be sold off.

Nokia is “roadkill” in 2013, Rogowsky says. Its Windows-based Lumia phones will fail to get traction and spur a turnaround, so the company will be split up and sold off.
Nokia’s infrastructure division will be spun out. Its maps division will be sold to Apple. Its emerging-markets Asha line will find a home with a Chinese or Taiwanese partner. And Microsoft will buy some of Nokia’s smartphone division assets to build and launch its own branded Windows Phone handsets, Rogowsky says.

6. Netflix and Pandora will be acquired.

Apple is a likely buyer of both Netflix and Pandora, Rogowsky says. Apple will break its precedent of never doing large-scale deals, he says.
Netflix needs a capital infusion or a deep-pocketed buyer to meet its $5 billion in upcoming bills for streaming video content. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings will join Apple’s board, he says. (CCS Insight thinks Google will buy Netflix in 2013.)
Apple will pick up Pandora when it realizes it’s better to buy than build a streaming music business, Rogowsky says.

7. Microsoft will buy Zynga. 

Rogowsky believes Microsoft will buy online games company Zynga. Meanwhile, entrepreneur Dylan Collins believes Zynga will go private next year.

8. Dropbox, Square and Twitter will file for IPOs. 

“Recognizing that going public too late isn’t a plus, Dropbox, Square and Twitter will all file for IPOs in 2013 and each will command multibillion-dollar valuations, vindicating their expensive private rounds (two will be north of $500 million in revenues),” Rogowsky said. AirBnB “will be close to following the other three to market.”

9. Apple will come out with a smart wristwatch. 

Apple and Intel are jointly building a Bluetooth-equipped smart wristwatch that can connect to other iOS devices, most notably iPhone and iPod devices, The Next Web says. The Apple smartwatch could find its way to the market in the first half of 2013 and sport a 1.5-inch OLED display, the website says.

10. Microsoft will produce its own smartphone. 

Just as Microsoft decided to build its own PCs and tablets with Surface, the company is poised to build its own smartphone as well, says tech analyst Ben Bajarin. To do so, the software giant might acquire a company like Nokia or HTC, he says. “I believe Microsoft will officially get in the smartphone hardware game in 2013,” Bajarin said.
At the same time, Bajarin does not believe rumors that Amazon will come out with its own smartphone.

11. RIM will be acquired. 

Research In Motion will make a modest rebound in 2013 with the release of its BlackBerry 10 devices, Bajarin says. But to be competitive in the handheld market it will need help. Samsung could acquire RIM and make BB10 its proprietary OS if its Tizen OS doesn’t work out, Bajarin says.

12. Young people will abandon Facebook. 

“The stream of young people leaving Facebook becomes a flood as the middle-aged Gen X takeover becomes overwhelming,” blogger John W. Smart writes. “Facebook stock tanks. Then the Gen xers exit Facebook too.”

13. The driverless car becomes a serious initiative. 

Driverless cars, such as those backed by Google, will make substantial progress in 2013, says Strategic News Service publisher Mark Anderson. Multiple new states and countries will pass laws to allow robot-driven cars, he says. And major brands will undertake serious development of all the features necessary to make the technology commonplace.

14. Half of North Americans will own a tablet in 2013. 

By the end of 2013, at least half of all North Americans will own a tablet computer, says Joshua Bixby, president of Strangeloop.
“Currently, 29% of North Americans own some kind of tablet,” he said on Dec. 11. “With the proliferation of new inexpensive tablets, with the emergence of kids as a mostly untapped tablet market, and with Christmas just around the corner, I’m predicting that more than 50% of North Americans will own a tablet by year end.”

15. Smartphone viruses will proliferate in 2013. 

“2013 will be the year your smartphone gets infected with a virus,” Bixby said.
Security firm McAfee Labs says smartphones and tablets will become a larger focus for cybercriminals in 2013.
Symantec is predicting a rise in mobile adware, or “madware,” especially for Android devices.

16. More online companies will open retail shops. 

Rising vacancies in shopping malls and lower rents will prompt more e-commerce firms to give retail a try, says Howard Lindzon, co-founder and CEO of Stocktwits.
“Online commerce finally goes offline beyond Apple’s dominance,” Lindzon said. “Microsoft’s retail foray is one of the abominations of all time. It did not have to be so bad and in 2013, either Google or Amazon will make a much better attempt at a retail presence. My outside bets for the same attempt are Kayak, Intuit and Facebook.”

17. Chinese mobile phone vendors will become major players. 

Three of the top five mobile handset makers will be Chinese by the end of 2014, research firm Gartner says. ZTE, Huawei and Lenovo are looking outside China for growth.
Chinese telecom equipment vendor ZTE is already the No. 4 global smartphone vendor, as of Q3, and could become a top three global smartphone vendor soon, ISI Group says. Some of ZTE’s carrier-branded Android smartphones in the U.S. include the Sprint Flash and the T-Mobile Concord.

18. Nintendo’s Wii U console will flop. 

Nintendo’s next-generation video game console, the Wii U, will be a failure, says Dean Takahashi, lead writer for GamesBeat at VentureBeat. Initial supplies of the new game machine may sell out, but three to six months from now the novelty will wear off and gamers will await better-looking titles on the upcoming consoles from Sony and Microsoft or on the PC, he says.

19. Dish will merge with DirecTV or a telecom company. 

Satellite television broadcaster Dish Network will aggressively seek a merger with rival DirecTV in 2013, says Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com. If that doesn’t work out, Dish will join forces with a communications company such as Sprint, Verizon or AT&T, he says.

20. DirecTV will buy Netflix. 

If DirecTV and Dish don’t merge, DirecTV will buy online streaming video service Netflix, Swann says.

Photos: Microsoft Windows 8 and Surface tablet launch event in New York City on Oct. 25, 2012 (top). Nintendo Wii U video game console (bottom). 

Victoria’s Secret lingerie models like smartphones, social media

When Victoria’s Secret taped its annual fashion show earlier this month in New York City, I had the chance to interview some of the models about their use of social media.

Chanel Iman

U.S. model Chanel Iman, 20, is hooked on Twitter. She uses the microblogging service “all the time every day” to express herself, she says.
“I love Twitter,” she said. “I use Twitter just to get out my thoughts and opinions on my life … I really do it for my fans. But sometimes I’ll go through all my different tweets that I have tweeted and it’s like memory. It’s almost like a journal. It’s documenting my life and the different points that intrigue me.”
Iman has nearly 103,000 followers on Twitter.
Iman has avoided joining Facebook. Twitter satisfies her urge to share and it’s so darn simple to use, she says. “It’s easy, just a few words and a picture and you’re done.”
Iman also uses Tumblr, which has become a hot platform of late.
“Social media is a big part of our generation and how we connect,” Iman said. “I think it’s a great way to connect with people. I use it every day.”
On the go, Iman uses a touch-screen smartphone from Vertu, a maker of luxury mobile phones based in Church Crookham, England. Vertu is a unit of Finnish cell phone giant Nokia.

Behati Prinsloo

Behati Prinsloo, 22, of Namibia uses social media more for keeping in touch with friends than building her personal brand and interacting with fans.
“I’m not a really self-promotional person,” she said. “Facebook I use more to keep in contact with my friends back home because I’m so far away … I try to keep it for friends and people I know.”
She started using Twitter at the suggestion of Victoria’s Secret officials.
“At first, it was really weird,” Prinsloo said. “I was like – what do I say? ‘Hey, I’m walking down the street going to work.’ But you can use it for good. I hate on Twitter when people just say, ‘Hey, have a great day.’ I mean, use it good. Don’t fill up space on my BlackBerry. Give me something. I think it’s a great thing. If you use it right. It can be an advantage.”
Research In Motion’s BlackBerry is her smartphone of choice because she likes the physical keyboard. Prinsloo says she’s more comfortable with hard buttons than touch-screens.
Prinsloo also has a Tumblr page, which she uses to post personal photos.

Liu Wen

Liu Wen, 23, of China has used a Twitter-like service in her home country called Weibo for about three years. Weibo is hugely popular in China and owned by online media company Sina.
She says she only started using Facebook a week before the Nov. 9 Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show taping. “We can’t really use Facebook in China,” she said.
She is using Facebook to connect with her friends and fellow models in the East and West. Like Prinsloo, Liu isn’t much interested in using social media for self-promotion at this point.
As for mobile devices, she has both an Apple iPhone and a RIM BlackBerry.

Photos from the 2011 Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show.