Rough year ahead for Microsoft and other 2013 tech predictions

Analysts predict tough going for Microsoft, Nokia, Hewlett-Packard and Research In Motion in the year ahead.

2013 tech industry predictions, part five: 

1. Bill Gates returns as Microsoft CEO after Steve Ballmer is ousted. 

CNBC predicts that Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates will return to lead the company after Steve Ballmer is shown the door.
“With Windows 8 a disaster, and the Surface tablet not close to meeting original internal projections, Steve Ballmer’s days at Microsoft in 2013 are ... over. The bigger surprise: Chairman Bill Gates returns as interim CEO in a last-ditch effort to do the impossible: re-engineer Microsoft to its former glory. Perhaps the only bright side: To keep investors engaged, Microsoft more than doubles its regular dividend.”

2. Windows 8 gets a quick overhaul. 

Veteran technology reporter and analyst Steve Wildstrom says Windows 8 will get an overhaul soon in response to consumer complaints about its new user interface.
“I expect that, at a minimum, Windows 8.1 (whatever it is really called) will give users of conventional PCs the ability to boot directly into Desktop mode, less need to ever use the Metro interface, and the return of some version of the Start button.”

3. Microsoft will make Office software for every platform. 

“2013 is going to be ugly” for Microsoft as it shifts to Windows 8, Forrester predicts. When PCs, tablets and smartphones are combined in a category called personal devices, Microsoft’s share of all operating systems has fallen from 95% in 2008 to 30% in 2012. And because Microsoft has little chance of gaining a large share of the smartphone and tablet markets, it will need make its Office productivity software for all the major platforms, Forrester says.
“Microsoft has to bite the bullet and rake in revenue from Office on every platform, not just Windows, and to a minor extent, (Mac) OS X,” Forrester says. “To remain relevant in a world where mobile devices outnumber PCs at least 2 to 1, the Office team will have to figure out ways to make Office equally accessible on Mac, iOS, Android devices, proprietary Android tablets, and the Web.”

4. Hewlett-Packard spins off its PC and printer business.

Before the end of 2013, HP will spin off its PC and printer business as it “makes a last-ditch effort to be like IBM,” CNBC says.
Silicon Valley entrepreneur Mark Rogowsky says calls to break up HP will grow louder in 2013, but HP CEO Meg Whitman will take other actions during the year.
HP will cut things like its Snapfish division, trim the number of PC models it makes by half and take another accounting charge, he says.

5. Nokia will split up and the parts will be sold off.

Nokia is “roadkill” in 2013, Rogowsky says. Its Windows-based Lumia phones will fail to get traction and spur a turnaround, so the company will be split up and sold off.
Nokia’s infrastructure division will be spun out. Its maps division will be sold to Apple. Its emerging-markets Asha line will find a home with a Chinese or Taiwanese partner. And Microsoft will buy some of Nokia’s smartphone division assets to build and launch its own branded Windows Phone handsets, Rogowsky says.

6. Netflix and Pandora will be acquired.

Apple is a likely buyer of both Netflix and Pandora, Rogowsky says. Apple will break its precedent of never doing large-scale deals, he says.
Netflix needs a capital infusion or a deep-pocketed buyer to meet its $5 billion in upcoming bills for streaming video content. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings will join Apple’s board, he says. (CCS Insight thinks Google will buy Netflix in 2013.)
Apple will pick up Pandora when it realizes it’s better to buy than build a streaming music business, Rogowsky says.

7. Microsoft will buy Zynga. 

Rogowsky believes Microsoft will buy online games company Zynga. Meanwhile, entrepreneur Dylan Collins believes Zynga will go private next year.

8. Dropbox, Square and Twitter will file for IPOs. 

“Recognizing that going public too late isn’t a plus, Dropbox, Square and Twitter will all file for IPOs in 2013 and each will command multibillion-dollar valuations, vindicating their expensive private rounds (two will be north of $500 million in revenues),” Rogowsky said. AirBnB “will be close to following the other three to market.”

9. Apple will come out with a smart wristwatch. 

Apple and Intel are jointly building a Bluetooth-equipped smart wristwatch that can connect to other iOS devices, most notably iPhone and iPod devices, The Next Web says. The Apple smartwatch could find its way to the market in the first half of 2013 and sport a 1.5-inch OLED display, the website says.

10. Microsoft will produce its own smartphone. 

Just as Microsoft decided to build its own PCs and tablets with Surface, the company is poised to build its own smartphone as well, says tech analyst Ben Bajarin. To do so, the software giant might acquire a company like Nokia or HTC, he says. “I believe Microsoft will officially get in the smartphone hardware game in 2013,” Bajarin said.
At the same time, Bajarin does not believe rumors that Amazon will come out with its own smartphone.

11. RIM will be acquired. 

Research In Motion will make a modest rebound in 2013 with the release of its BlackBerry 10 devices, Bajarin says. But to be competitive in the handheld market it will need help. Samsung could acquire RIM and make BB10 its proprietary OS if its Tizen OS doesn’t work out, Bajarin says.

12. Young people will abandon Facebook. 

“The stream of young people leaving Facebook becomes a flood as the middle-aged Gen X takeover becomes overwhelming,” blogger John W. Smart writes. “Facebook stock tanks. Then the Gen xers exit Facebook too.”

13. The driverless car becomes a serious initiative. 

Driverless cars, such as those backed by Google, will make substantial progress in 2013, says Strategic News Service publisher Mark Anderson. Multiple new states and countries will pass laws to allow robot-driven cars, he says. And major brands will undertake serious development of all the features necessary to make the technology commonplace.

14. Half of North Americans will own a tablet in 2013. 

By the end of 2013, at least half of all North Americans will own a tablet computer, says Joshua Bixby, president of Strangeloop.
“Currently, 29% of North Americans own some kind of tablet,” he said on Dec. 11. “With the proliferation of new inexpensive tablets, with the emergence of kids as a mostly untapped tablet market, and with Christmas just around the corner, I’m predicting that more than 50% of North Americans will own a tablet by year end.”

15. Smartphone viruses will proliferate in 2013. 

“2013 will be the year your smartphone gets infected with a virus,” Bixby said.
Security firm McAfee Labs says smartphones and tablets will become a larger focus for cybercriminals in 2013.
Symantec is predicting a rise in mobile adware, or “madware,” especially for Android devices.

16. More online companies will open retail shops. 

Rising vacancies in shopping malls and lower rents will prompt more e-commerce firms to give retail a try, says Howard Lindzon, co-founder and CEO of Stocktwits.
“Online commerce finally goes offline beyond Apple’s dominance,” Lindzon said. “Microsoft’s retail foray is one of the abominations of all time. It did not have to be so bad and in 2013, either Google or Amazon will make a much better attempt at a retail presence. My outside bets for the same attempt are Kayak, Intuit and Facebook.”

17. Chinese mobile phone vendors will become major players. 

Three of the top five mobile handset makers will be Chinese by the end of 2014, research firm Gartner says. ZTE, Huawei and Lenovo are looking outside China for growth.
Chinese telecom equipment vendor ZTE is already the No. 4 global smartphone vendor, as of Q3, and could become a top three global smartphone vendor soon, ISI Group says. Some of ZTE’s carrier-branded Android smartphones in the U.S. include the Sprint Flash and the T-Mobile Concord.

18. Nintendo’s Wii U console will flop. 

Nintendo’s next-generation video game console, the Wii U, will be a failure, says Dean Takahashi, lead writer for GamesBeat at VentureBeat. Initial supplies of the new game machine may sell out, but three to six months from now the novelty will wear off and gamers will await better-looking titles on the upcoming consoles from Sony and Microsoft or on the PC, he says.

19. Dish will merge with DirecTV or a telecom company. 

Satellite television broadcaster Dish Network will aggressively seek a merger with rival DirecTV in 2013, says Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com. If that doesn’t work out, Dish will join forces with a communications company such as Sprint, Verizon or AT&T, he says.

20. DirecTV will buy Netflix. 

If DirecTV and Dish don’t merge, DirecTV will buy online streaming video service Netflix, Swann says.

Photos: Microsoft Windows 8 and Surface tablet launch event in New York City on Oct. 25, 2012 (top). Nintendo Wii U video game console (bottom). 

Old 3-D movies from 1950s will provide welcome content for today’s 3-D TVs

Television manufacturers and retailers are pushing 3-D TV, but there isn’t much content for it yet.
ESPN launched a 3-D TV channel on June 11 to broadcast World Cup soccer and future sporting events in 3-D. DirecTV today started broadcasting three new 3-D channels to its subscribers.
Hollywood has released a handful of movies on 3-D Blu-ray Disc, including “Monsters vs. Aliens” and “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs.” But that’s about it so far.
The current 3-D craze only really got started with the theatrical release in December of James Cameron’s science-fiction epic “Avatar.” It was produced natively in 3-D. Other recent movies like “Clash of the Titans” and “The Last Airbender” were shot in 2-D but converted to 3-D.
Most of the catalog titles available for release on 3-D Blu-ray Disc are recent animated features, some concert movies and extreme sports films. Major 3-D movies before 2009 were infrequent, with an occasional computer-animated feature amid shorter films for Imax theaters and amusement parks.
But the cupboard is really bare before “The Polar Express” (2004), according to the Illustrated 3-D Movie List and the 3D Movies Database.
You have to go back to the early 1980s for more Hollywood 3-D movies. But these flicks are mostly cheesy horror movies like “Amityville 3-D” (1983), “Jaws 3-D” (1983) and “Friday the 13th Part 3” (1982).
In the 1970s, 3-D was reserved for cheap skin flicks like “Capitol Hill Girls” (1977), “Disco Dolls in Hot Skin” (1977) and “The Playmates” (1973).
To get older Hollywood-grade 3-D feature films, you have to reach back into the vault to the mid-1950s. That was the first golden age of 3-D movies. That’s when we got “Bwana Devil” (1952), “House of Wax” (1953), “Hondo” (1953) starring John Wayne, “Kiss Me Kate” (1953), Alfred Hitchcock’s “Dial M For Murder” (1954) and “Creature from the Black Lagoon” (1954).
But can those half-century old 3-D movies work with today’s 3-D TV sets?
I didn’t know. So I asked some experts.

Clearing up misconceptions of 1950s 3-D movies

I figured older movies were produced in a different method from today’s 3-D movies. I remember the cheap paper glasses with colored lenses (usually red and cyan) from 1980s anaglyph 3-D movies. The experience was headache-inducing and created muddy colors on screen. I figured that was the old technology and polarized lenses were today’s technology.
Turns out I was wrong.
“There is a very common misconception that all of the old 3-D movies were anaglyph – even the big names like DreamWorks and Nintendo are responsible for spreading this erroneous information,” said Andrew Woods, a 3-D expert who manages the Illustrated 3-D Movie List. “About 99% of the movies in the 1950s boom period were filmed dual channel and exhibited polarized.”
In an e-mail interview, Woods pointed me to an article on the “Top 3-D Myths” by the 3-D Film Preservation Fund.
Woods says the old 3-D movies can be converted relatively easily to new formats for digital exhibition.
“I’ve seen a clip of ‘Kiss Me Kate’ (1953), which was restored this way and it looked wonderful,” he said. “I understand ‘Hondo’ (1953) has also been restored to digital 3-D for limited cinema exhibition.”
Still, a lot of work often needs to be done to restore an old 3-D movie, including rectification of the 3-D image to remove misalignment and color differences between left and right eye, but this can be an automated process, said Woods, a research engineer at Curtin University of Technology in Australia.
If movies like “Dial M for Murder” and “Creature from the Black Lagoon” were digitally refreshed and restored, “the viewing experience would be significantly better than their analog presentation,” Woods said.
I posted the same questions I put to Woods on the Today3D Forum. And I received similar answers.
“Have no doubt, all the classics from the ’50s will be available for modern 3-D TV,” wrote 3D Master. “The studios are just waiting for the right timing (more 3-D TVs in the market).”