Tech pundits had many of their predictions for 2020 thrown out the window because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The health crisis was a black swan event that made their forecasts mostly irrelevant.
Now that vaccines are reaching the market, governments might finally get the Covid-19 pandemic under control in the new year.
So, what are prognosticators seeing for 2021?
What follows is a sampling of predictions that will be proven right or wrong in the year ahead.
Dating apps have big moment post-pandemic
Readers of the Verge offered their predictions for the consumer internet and social networks in 2020.
Some people forecast a surge in usage of dating apps as the world opens following Covid-19 vaccinations.
“Many of you predict that when the Covid-19 vaccines have been widely distributed, the Earth will experience a period of prolonged horniness unlike anything that has been seen in generations,” Casey Newton wrote. “Tinder, Grindr, and all the rest are poised to thrive as a result.”
2021 IPOs: WordPress, TikTok, ‘Pokemon Go’ parents
2020 was a big year for initial public offerings. IPOs this year included Airbnb, DoorDash, Palantir Technologies, Snowflake, Unity Software and Warner Music Group.
Potential IPO candidates for 2021 include Didi, the “Uber of China”; ByteDance, owner of social media network TikTok; and Chinese drone maker DJI Innovations, MKM Partners said in a report. Others include Automattic, WordPress operator, website developer and e-commerce enabler; Niantic, the mobile video game developer known for “Pokemon Go”; and Roblox, online game platform and game creation system, MKM said.
Kiplinger included Roblox on its “13 Hot Upcoming IPOs to Watch For in 2021.” The list also features female-focused online dating service Bumble, pet supplies retailer Petco, game developers platform AppLovin, and stock-trading service Robinhood.
Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle make big acquisitions
The Information predicted several major tech acquisitions in 2021.
Writers Nick Wingfield and Kevin McLaughlin predicted that Microsoft will buy MongoDB. They said the acquisition would give Microsoft a way to beef up its online database offerings to better compete with Amazon Web Services.
They predicted Cisco will buy Smartsheet to make a move into the collaboration software category.
They also think Oracle will make a bid for Dropbox or Box, both file-sharing services, in the year ahead.
Elsewhere, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said he thinks Microsoft will “make a major software acquisition” to expand its product footprint in the cloud computing war against Amazon.com.
U.S. tech firm buys Nokia
Research firm CCS Insight made several interesting predictions for the year ahead.
For one, it expects the Covid-19 pandemic to quicken the adoption of robots and automation beyond manufacturing and logistics.
CCS Insight also predicted that “a major U.S. tech company buys Nokia in 2021.” It said Microsoft is one potential suitor, according to Nokiamob.net.
Apple acquires a movie studio
Wedbush’s Ives predicts that Apple will buy a movie studio to bulk up the content on its Apple TV+ video streaming service. He included the 2021 prediction as part of his “Christmas wish list” for Apple. News reports say Apple recently passed on a deal to buy MGM.
“Apple finally rips the Band-Aid off and makes a major studio acquisition to change the course of its content efforts around Apple TV+ and its aggressive streaming ambitions,” Ives said. “We believe Sony Pictures, Lionsgate, and A24 remain the top candidates if (Apple CEO Tim) Cook & Co. go down that path.”
Evolutionary year ahead for augmented reality
ABI Research predicts that 2021 will be a “boon year” for the augmented reality market.
The enterprise market will continue to drive the AR market with remote expertise and remote training applications, ABI said.
The consumer AR market will grow thanks to smartphone and tablet software applications. But the predicted AR smart glasses market is still just getting started.
“2021 will be an important one for AR consumer hardware,” said Eric Abbruzzese, AR/VR research director at ABI Research. “nReal will ship its first headsets to consumers, while Mad Gaze will also look to expand. Also, Facebook is expected to roll out its AR smart glasses out of its Reality Labs initiative; Google may join as well after the acquisition of North, and with pressure from Facebook and others. Although expectations for a dedicated AR product launch are targeting 2022 for the company, Apple is a wild card.”
Mike Boland, an analyst with ARtillery Intelligence, says spatial computing has “transitioned to an adolescent period of its lifecycle.”
Consumer AR glasses will make progress in 2021, but they will be evolutionary, not revolutionary, developments, he said. The focus of AR glasses remains on the enterprise market, which doesn’t mind pricey, bulky hardware as long as it improves productivity and efficiency.
Boland expects Apple to announce its rumored smart glasses in 2022.
Photo: Dating apps illustration by Norma Dorothy via Creative Commons.
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